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<text id=90TT3296>
<title>
Dec. 10, 1990: Strains On The Coalition
</title>
<history>
TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1990
Dec. 10, 1990 What War Would Be Like
</history>
<article>
<source>Time Magazine</source>
<hdr>
NATION, Page 43
Strains on the Coalition
</hdr>
<body>
<p> While governments around the world have rallied to join
George Bush's anti-Saddam coalition, popular support for
military involvement in the gulf is shallow even among some of
America's staunchest allies. For other countries tanin the
alliance, war is a minority, potentially untenable proposition.
</p>
<p> Britain remains outwardly the most committed European member
of the coalition. In mid-November a poll for the Times of
London showed 62% of those surveyed backing the use of U.S. and
British troops against Iraq if Saddam Hussein refuses to leave
Kuwait. Even the opposition Labour Party has consistently
backed the government's gulf policy. However, in spite of
current levels of support, pollsters believe public approval
will decline dramatically as casualties mount.
</p>
<p> Officially, France remains on the anti-Saddam bandwagon.
During the CSCE summit in Paris two weeks ago, President
Francois Mitterrand repeatedly told Bush that "we're not going
to leave you alone in the desert." The public is more
diffident: in a poll published by Le Figaro last week, only 36%
said they would favor French involvement in a gulf war, down
from 46% in September. An earlier survey had shown that 53%
wanted France to stand by the U.S.; that figure has fallen to
40%.
</p>
<p> Germany has pledged $2.2 billion to support the coalition,
but militarily it is comfortably noninvolved. None of its
soldiers have been or will be sent to the gulf, and virtually
all the German hostages returned from Iraq two weeks ago. There
have been only minor antiwar demonstrations. Fuel-price
increases have failed to stimulate debate: long before the
current crisis, Bonn imposed heavy gasoline taxes to encourage
conservation; thus higher costs for crude only marginally
affected German pump prices, which run in excess of $3 per gal.
</p>
<p> In Japan a few voices in the press have pointed out that the
crisis gave Tokyo the opportunity to come up with dramatic
foreign policy initiatives. But despite the danger to oil
supplies, critical for a country that imports virtually all its
crude, the public considers the gulf too far away to be a
threat. Japan has pledged $4 billion to the coalition--an
amount that, U.S. critics note, is far less than the $6 billion
Matsushita paid last week to acquire MCA.
</p>
<p> Turkey has won praise from Washington for its support. But
Prime Minister Turgut Ozal's hawkishness may have led the West
to overrate Turkey's commitment. In a recent poll, 72% of
respondents opposed Turkish military involvement.
</p>
<p> A host of other troubles bedevils the coalition. Moscow is
too busy with domestic crises to do more than offer moral
support. Understandably, popular enthusiasm for a foreign
military adventure is not great at a time when Soviet mothers
are still mourning sons killed in Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia and
Syria cringe at the idea of a conflict pitting Arab against
Arab. They remain uncomfortable with being--at least
theoretically--aligned with Israel, which, though it has no
troops committed to the gulf, is undoubtedly in favor of
striking Iraq. Waiting for war may not corrode strength of
arms, but it does eat away at the heart.
</p>
<p>By Howard G. Chua-Eoan. Reported by Edward M. Gomez/Paris and
Seiichi Kanise/Tokyo, with other bureaus.
</p>
</body>
</article>
</text>